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Gewinner und Verlierer 2012

In 2012 war der DAX im internationalen Vergleich einer der großen Gewinner. Die Jahresperformance in Euro notierte 2012 bei +29,1% nach einem Rückgang von 14,7% im Vorjahr. Die Euro-Stärke zum Ende des Jahres brachte dann noch einen Anstieg des DAX in US-Dollar; über das Jahr hinweg waren dies +31,7%.

Geringer sahen die Zugewinne in den USA aus; der breit aufgestellte S&P500 legte in US-Dollar 13,4% zu; in Euro waren es dann noch 11,3%. Größere Verwerfungen gab es in Japan bedingt durch die Yen-Stärke; so konnte der heimische Nickei225 in Yen +22,9% zum Vorjahr notieren, in US-Dollar waren es dann nur noch +10,0%, in Euro blieben +7,7%.

Die Benchmark der Vermögensverwalter, der MSCI World Index (NET), schaffte 2012 in US-Dollar +15,8% und in Euro +14,0%.

In der Übersicht hier einige Indices; eine umfangreichere Zusammenstellung findet sich in Jahreszusammenfassung 2012 (PDF, 45 Seiten):

Jahresperformance 2012

Für den DAX war es das stärkste Jahr seit 2003 mit +37,1 %; nachfolgender Chart zeigt die jährliche Entwicklung seit 1960

DAX - Jahresperformance seit 1960

Bei den Edelmetallen lag Platin mit einem zweistelligen Zuwachs vorn; Gold und Silber verzeichneten einstellige Anstiege. Das Bild bei den Industriemetallen war durchmischt. Abschlägigen Nickelpreisen standen Preisgewinne bei Zinn von etwas über 20% gegenüber.
Während das nordamerikanische Rohöl (WTI) einen Rückgang verzeichnete, notierte das europäische Brent nahezu unverändert.

Die Rohstoffe in der Übersicht:

20130110-rohstoffe2012

Einige Charts stehen nachfolgend jeweils für den Jahresverlauf 2012, zunächst der DAX:

DAX, Jahresverlauf in US-Dollar vs. Euro

Der S&P500:

S&P500, Jahresverlauf in US-Dollar vs. Euro

Der Nickei225, die gelbe Kurve bildet den Index in Yen ab:

Nickei225, Jahresverlauf in Yen, US-Dollar und Euro

Die Edelmetalle jeweils in Euro:

Edelmetalle in Euro

weitere Charts finden sich in der:

Jahreszusammenfassung 2012 (PDF, 45 Seiten)

This is what bull markets are all about

Abseits aller Untergangsszenarien, Richard Bernstein, ehemals Analyst bei Merrill Lynch, ist weiterhin bullish für den US Aktienmarkt.

Bullenmärkte sterben in Euphorie und nicht mit einem Sentiment zögernder Investoren. Obwohl der S&P 500 nahe zu 100% seit dem März 2009 zugelegt habe, seien viele Investoren ängstlich, suchen nach Absicherung und ignorieren die Tatsache, dass die Aktienmärkte mehr Rendite bringen als die Rentenmärkte.

Private wie institutionelle Investoren hätten die Verdopplung des US Aktienmarktes verschlafen. Geht man davon aus, dass dieser Bullenmarkt typischen Mustern folgt, dann werden die Anleger noch versuchen auf den Zug aufzuspringen um nichts zu verpassen.

Der eigene Sentiment-Indikator generiere ein extrem bärisches Sentiment (eine Standardabweichung unterhalb der Langzeitnorm);  somit sendet dieser ein Kaufsignal:
Wall Street Sentiment Indicator
hier geht’s weiter zur kompletten Analyse: “This is what bull markets are all about “

Das Konzept des Ordoliberalismus

In der Diskussion um die Zukunft des Kapitalismus möchte ich auf die Grundgedanken des Ordoliberalismus und in diesem Zusammenhang auf das Script von Prof. Dr. Volker Hentschel  Deutsche Wirtschaftsgeschichte (1914 – 1955) hinweisen, in dem auf Seite 198 ff. die Merkmale dieser marktwirtschaftlichen Wirtschaftsordnung skizziert werden.

Synthese von individueller Freiheit und wirtschaftlicher Ordnung

- individuelle Freiheit als natürliches Recht des Menschen
- Ordnung als Koordination der individuellen wirtschaftlichen Interessen und Pläne im Gesamtinteresse (= optimale Versorgung der Gesellschaft mit Gütern)

Schließt aus: Zentralverwaltungswirtschaft und „Laissez faire – Liberalismus“
Fordert: Herstellung und Garantie einer Wettbewerbsordnung durch einen starken, demokratisch legitimierten Staat d. h. die Koordination individueller Interessen, Entscheidungen und Handlungen durch den vom Preismechanismus gesteuerten Wettbewerb privater, handlungsfähiger und verantwortlicher Eigentümer auf freien und offenen Märkten.

Vorteile des Wettbewerbs auf freien Märkten

- maximale Leistung und optimale Marktversorgung
- Steuerung des Marktes (= Bestimmung der Produktion) durch die Wünsche der Verbraucher
- Reaktionsgeschwindigkeit und Anpassungsflexibilität
- leistungsgerechte Verteilung von Einkommen und Gütern

Bedingungen der Wirksamkeit des Wettbewerbs

- Institutionelle Garantie von Geldwertstabilität
- im Innern und nach außen offene Märkte
- Privateigentum an Produktionsmitteln
- Vertragsfreiheit, die nicht zur Beseitigung des Wettbewerbs nutzbar
- uneingeschränkte Haftung der Unternehmensleitungen
- Konstanz der Wirtschaftspolitik

MfG Helmut Wüllenweber

Börse Hongkong: Kurse zu weit vorausgeeilt?

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Nach einem rasanten Kursanstieg um 65 Prozent vom Tief des letzten Jahres, rät der Vorsitzender der Börse in Hong Kong, Ronald Arculli, gegenwärtig von Aktienengagements an seiner Heimatbörse ab.

“The basis for growth hasn’t established itself yet. We’re hanging on to every piece of good news. In Hong Kong’s domestic economy, you still have a lot of tales of woe. Stock markets tend to run ahead of economic activity. In some quieter moments, I think people are still acutely aware that the situation is still fragile and can reverse. I’m acutely conscious of it.”

Bloomberg: Hong Kong Exchange’s Arculli ‘Wouldn’t Be a Buyer’

Helmut Wüllenweber

S&P 500: Are you bearish enough?

Angesichts des starken Kursanstiegs in den vergangenen Wochen, stellen sich viele Beobachter des Marktgeschehens am Aktienmarkts die Frage, ob wir es (immer noch) mit einer Bärenmarktrallye oder schon mit einem Bullenmarkt zu tun haben.  Bekannte Kontraindikatoren rufen schon – wenn auch noch zaghaft – das Ende der Baisse aus.

William Hester, CFA bei Hussman Funds, geht der Frage nach, ob sich, ausgehend vom Handelsvolumen an der NYSE, Bärenmarktrallies vom Beginn einer nachhaltigen Hausse unterscheiden lassen.

Im Ergebnis vermisst er beim aktuellen Kursanstieg ein gleichzeitiges Ansteigen des Volumens, um einen echten Bullenmarkt anzuzeigen.

William Hester, Hussman Funds: “Trading Volume Separates Bull Markets from Bear Rallies”

Helmut Wüllenweber

Financial Panics = Political Change

Für Interessierte das Neueste von Martin Armstrong (15.4.2009, 22 Seiten, PDF, 10 MB):

Financial Panics = Political Change

A MODERN PARABLE . .

A Japanese company ( Toyota ) and an American company (Ford) decided to
have a canoe race on the Missouri River. Both teams practiced long and
hard to reach their peak performance before the race.

On the big day, the Japanese won by a mile.

The Americans, very discouraged and depressed, decided to investigate
the reason for the crushing defeat. A management team made up of senior
management was formed to investigate and recommend appropriate action.

Their conclusion was the Japanese had 8 people rowing and 1 person
steering, while the American team had 8 people steering and 1 person
rowing.

Feeling a deeper study was in order, American management hired a
consulting company and paid them a large amount of money for a second
opinion.

They advised, of course, that too many people were steering the boat,
while not enough people were rowing.

Not sure of how to utilize that information, but wanting to prevent
another loss to the Japanese, the rowing team’s management structure
was totally reorganized to 4 steering supervisors, 3 area steering
superintendents, and 1 assistant superintendent steering manager.

They also implemented a new performance system that would give the 1
person rowing the boat greater incentive to work harder. It was called
the ‘Rowing Team Quality First Program,’ with meetings, dinners, and
free pens for the rower There was discussion of getting new paddles,
canoes, and other equipment, extra vacation days for practices and bonuses.

The next year the Japanese won by two miles.

Humiliated, the American management laid off the rower for poor
performance, halted development of a new canoe, sold the paddles, and
canceled all capital investments for new equipment. The money saved
was distributed to the Senior Executives as bonuses and the next year’s
racing team was out-sourced to India.

Sadly, The End.

Here’s something else to think about:
Ford has spent the last thirty years moving all its factories out of
the US, claiming they can’t make money paying American wages.

TOYOTA has spent the last thirty years building more than a dozen
plants inside the US. The last quarter’s results:

TOYOTA makes 4 billion in profits while Ford racked up 9 billion in
losses.

Ford folks are still scratching their heads.

Nikolaus

Einen schönen Nikolaus:

mal schauen, was uns zu Weihnachten noch alles serviert wird ;-)

New Deal: “Ihr Einsatz bitte!”

Während der Chefökonom des IWF, Olivier Blanchard, vor einer Verschlimmerung der Finanzkrise warnt (”Das schlimmste steht uns noch bevor”), gibt der designierte US Präsident Barack Obama, Hoffnungsträger der verzweifelten Nationen von Amerika, Hilfestellung bei der Branchenseletion für ein “New Deal” Aktienportefeuille: “We’ll put people back to work rebuilding our crumbling roads and bridges, modernizing schools that are failing our children, and building wind farms and solar panels; fuel-efficient cars and the alternative energy technologies that can free us from our dependence on foreign oil and keep our economy competitive in the years ahead.”

Die richtige Aktie zur richtigen Zeit

Obamas Aussage kann man als Projektionsfläche für eine Ideensammlung börsennotierter Profiteure benutzen, für die Zeit, zu der die Weltökonomie wie Phoenix aus der Asche auferstehen wird. Vorausgesetzt, der von manchen Auguren projizierte US Staatsbankrott läßt diese Überlegungen nicht obsolet werden.

Nachtrag: Ein aktueller Blick auf die Gewinnerliste bei den ETF´s, zeigt die I-Shares S&P Global Clean Energy (IQQH) in der Führungsposition. Offensichtlich sind heute Nachmittag schon andere Leute auf die oben beschriebene Idee gekommen.

Helmut Wüllenweber

“It’s Just Time”

Für interessierte Leser – es gibt ein neues Papier von Martin Armstrong zum Download, 77 Seiten, PDF

“It’s Just Time”

The Decline & Fall of the United States?
The Global Financial System?
Or Capitalism?

Or is it the Monetary System ?

NY Times: Are Stocks the Bargain You Think?

So lautet der Titel eines Artikels der New York Times, in dem die die jüngst geäußerten Kaufempfehlungen der Herren Buffett (Bershire Hathaway) und Bogle (Vanguard) abgewogen werden, gegen Einschätzungen von James Melcher (Balesta Capital) aus dem Lager der Bären. Herr Melcher sieht in seinem Bulletin des Monats August das Potential “for a self-reinforcing negative spiral that would culminate in a severe economic recession and bear market in equities worldwide.”

Helmut Wüllenweber

What Happens During Recessions, Crunches and Busts?

Die Ökonomen Stijn Claessens, M. Ayhan Kose und Marco E. Terrones vom IWF haben sich mit ebendieser Frage beschäftigt und zu diesem Zwecke 122 Rezessionen, 112 Kreditklemmen und 114 Phasen mit Immobilienpreisrückgängen sowie 234 Baissephasen am Aktienmarkt von 1960 bis 2007 anhand der Daten von 21 OECD-Ländern ausgewertet.

Zusammenfassend kommen sie zu folgendem Schluß:

In light of these findings, we examine the prospective implications of recent macroeconomic and financial developments in the United States and conclude that there are indications that the current slowdown in U.S. output is not atypical of the onset of previous recession episodes. Yet at the same time, the sharp decline in total investment (mainly driven by a large drop in residential investment), the drop in house prices and, to lesser extent, the credit contraction suggest that the slow down is more severe than in a typical onset of a recession. This suggests that, if a recession were to occur in the United States, its amplitude might be deeper and its duration longer than that of a typical recession.

Rezessionen, die mit sinkenden Häuserpreisen einhergehen, haben mit 4,6 Quartalen die längste Dauer, wobei die Preiskorrektur am Häusermarkt selbst, erst nach durchschnittlich 18 Quartalen beendet ist.

What Happens During Recessions, Crunches and Busts? (pdf)

Helmut Wüllenweber

The Elusive Bottom – ein ‘MUST READ’

Wöchentlich präsentiert John Mauldin in seinem ‘Outside the Box’ unterschiedliche Ansichten diverser Autoren. Diese Woche erfreut er seine Leserschaft mit einer empfehlenswerten Analyse von David Rosenberg, Nordamerika-Ökonom bei Merrill Lynch; dieser gibt eine Analyse der aktuellen Situation nebst Ausblick zum Besten.

Rosenberg favorisiert ein deflationäres Szenario; die momentane Rezession vergleicht er mit der 1975. Den Beginn datiert er auf den Januar diesen Jahres, erwartet ein Ende nicht vor Mitte 2009.

Die positive Wachstumsrate des Bruttoinlandsproduktes führe einen in die Irre, verleite zu verzögerten Investmententscheidungen. Die Rezessionskriterien (Beschäftigung, Industrieproduktion, Realeinkommen, inflationsbereinigte Umsätze des Handels/verarb. Gewerbes) des National Bureau of Economic Research, NBER, seien bereits erfüllt.

Die Rezession hat bereits mehrere Kapitel geschrieben:

  • Chapter 1 was the end of the res construction bubble
  • Chapter two was the end of the home price bubble
  • Chapter three was the end of the credit cycle
  • Chapter four was the end of the employment cycle
  • Chapter 5 is the first consumer recession since 1990-91

Im Folgenden ist Rosenbergs Ausblick wiedergegeben:

Three markers to turn us bullish

In terms of what are some of the markers that I’m weighing down to turn more bullish? I think this is very important. I look at not so much where am I going to be wrong, but looking at what are the things that will turn me more positive?
There are three markers that I have laid down. The first marker is the personal savings rate. I have to see the personal savings rate go back to the pre-bubbles, normalized levels, which was 8%. I’m not talking about the Jurassic period here.
I’m talking about where we were in the late 1980s and the early 1990s, before the last two bubbles. That’s why I said plural.

We had a tech stock bubble followed very quickly by a housing bubble. This had tremendous implications for perceived net worth and perceived future asset growth of the household sector. It had monumental impact on how people spent their after-tax income. That’s why we got to a point last year where briefly the savings rate got to negative for the first time since the 1920s. There was a belief system that we could retire on our assets, and now these assets are deflating and people’s expectations of how they’re going to retire is going to force that savings rate higher. That’s going to be very disinflationary, by the way.

I think it’s important to note that, in 2002, as the tech sector was deflating, Greenspan and Bernanke decided that it was a good idea to re-slate the housing stock as an antidote to the deflation in the tech capital stock. This is almost a piece of Mary Shelley’s Frankenstein; we built the monster, now we have to tear it down. I don’t know what else is left. We’ve had an equity bubble followed by a housing bubble, followed by a credit bubble. I don’t think there are any more rabbits in the hat to create the next bubble, unless that bubble is going to be in Treasuries, and maybe that is, in fact, going to happen. It’s pretty clear that the Fed is going to be concentrating a lot more in the future on non-traditional measures to ease monetary conditions, and not just cutting the Fed fund rate.
Part of that may be reflating by expanding its balance sheet, which means that it’s not just talk. The Fed is actually going to add to its balance sheet, and that’s exactly what happened.

1) Need to see the savings rate go to eight percent

With the Bank of Japan and the operations they conducted back in the 1990s, this is just stuff to consider for the future. Let me just say that a savings rate of 8% would leave me feeling very good about the fact that we would have gone to a level of pent-up demand that would help us embark on the next bull market and economic expansion. That’s going to take quite a bit of time. This is a process.
This a process we’re talking, even after the recession ends, that’s going to be an elongated recovery, as there was in the early 1990s, after that asset cycle.
Remember, the recession might have ended in November 2001, but that did not give you a “get out of jail free” card as an equity investor, and certainly the recovery was a good two years away, even if the recession technically ended at the end of 2001. I’m talking about the markers that will turn me bullish for the next cycle. An eight percent savings rate, to me, would be a very critical launching pad.

2) Months supply below eight months

What else? Well, I doubt that anything is really going to bottom, including the financials, until we’re convinced that house prices have hit bottom. For that we have to look at the inventory to sales ratio, and there are different measures.
There is the new inventory, which is a 10-month supply. There’s the resale; that’s 11-month supply. When I take a look at the Census Bureau data, which includes total vacant units for sale, single-family, condo, it’s more like 17-month supply.
We need to include everything, including foreclosed properties. I have to see that number sliced in half. I have to see it down below eight months supply before I’ll be convinced home prices don’t bottom, at least the second derivatives start to turn positive. I have to see that metric at the eight-month supply. I’m keeping a very close eye on it. That will make me feel a lot more comfortable with turning bullish for the next cycle.

3) Interest coverage ratio has to come down to 10.5%

The third and last marker comes down to the household balance sheet. What I’m referring to here is interest coverage in the household sector. We have a record debt-income ratio, but that’s a stop-to-flow concept. I’m talking about interest coverage, how much are principal and interest payments from the record debt absorbing out of household income? It is 14.1%. It’s at a near-record high. We have never been in a recession with this metric at this level. So, that means there are too many things that are levels we’ve never seen before. The whole thing about economic bottling is you run the rest of it based on the past, and there are so many things that we’re entering into this thing that I’ve never seen before.

There is, I’d have to admit, a wide dispersion around the forecast I am providing. What I am really trying to do is put things into a certain perspective. What I know, being an economist, is that in some sense you’re a glorified historian. So when I take a look at the chart of interest coverage in the household sector, what do I see? I see that after the recession of the early 1980s, this interest coverage ratio got down to 10.5% by 1982 and, voila, that was the touch-off point for a multi-year bull market and economic expansion.

Then we had the recession of the early 1990s, and what do you know? In 1992, interest coverage went down to 10.5% again. That was the launching pad for a multi-year bull market and economic expansion. We’re 14.1% in this metric today. I know this historical record tells me that there is something about a 10.5% ratio that is a very cathartic event. The problem is that to get there from here would require the elimination of $2 trillion of household debt. So, maybe when NYU’s Nouriel Roubini talks about that the total losses could be up to $2 trillion, maybe he’s not talking through a paper bag.

Frugality is going to set in

As far as I know, there are only two ways to eliminate debt. You either walk away from it, which people obviously are doing, which is why we got these write-downs and these foreclosures, or you pay it down. I think people with a FICO score that they are concerned about are going to pay that down. That means that the savings rate is going to be forced higher. This, again, is going to be very, very disinflationary. It means that fashions are going to change. It means frugality is going to set in. We’re going to be living in smaller houses, driving smaller cars and living more frugally. It’s not going to be the end of the world; it’s going to be a necessary process to truly embark on getting the balance sheets down to more comfortable levels so that we can actually embark on the next cycle.

Intense deleveraging in the banking sector

The whole thing about being an economist is that you’re being requested to model behavior. What I found recently was three signs of significant changes in behavior. We obviously know of at least one investment bank that is taking aggressive action to sell assets and to deleverage. That’s going to force a lot of action in other parts of the industry. What we’re talking about here is intensified deleveraging in the banking sector.

Inventories cut by $62 billion despite tax stimulus

What else did we see? Well, those GDP numbers were just fascinating when you dig through them. Think about it for a second. How did businesses respond to the biggest tax stimulus of all time? They cut their inventory by $62 billion. Can you fathom that? Instead of boosting production as a result of the stimulus, they just allowed the stimulus to absorb past production. We already know that the inventory component went down another five points based on the July ISM number, so this inventory liquidation process is continuing.

Savings rate boosted despite stimulus too

Alan Greenspan cut his teeth on inventory investment cycles. So banks are deleveraging, and companies are liquidating inventories. How did households respond to the biggest tax stimulus of all time? They boosted their savings rate from 0.3% in the first quarter to 2.6% in the second quarter, which is only the third steepest increase in the savings rate in any given quarter in the past 55 years.
Now you probably didn’t read that in the front page of The Wall Street Journal, but I find that to be a very relevant statistic.

So we have financial sector deleveraging. We have business sector inventory liquidation overlaid with the households boosting their savings rate. These are new themes, and the theme is about getting small. That’s going to play very well into Rich Bernstein’s decision two months ago to allocate an extra 15 percentage points to his fixed income portfolio. Now we’re talking about fixed income. We’re talking about bonds that are high quality and have non-callable protection.

Nominal GDP growth has highest correlation with yields

I’ll tell you that the really key forecast next year coming from the economics department here is the nominal GDP, nominal, price times quantity, because we’re calling for nominal GDP growth next year to average 1.5%. That is going to be very bullish for sectors that have proven earnings stability and reliable dividend growth, and it’s going to be very bullish for bonds. I say that, because I know that the critical driving factor for bonds is not fiscal deficits. It’s not the dollar and, guess what, it’s not commodities. Nominal GDP growth has the highest correlation. People look and they say, “Four percent 10-year note; who’d want to touch it?” The reality is that nominal GDP growth this year is averaging 4%. The fact that the 10-year note is averaging 4% is not really a big mystery, if you’re looking at the macro underpinnings.

Now, if I’m right on 1.5% nominal GDP growth for next year, all I can tell you is that the last time we had a condition like that was in 1958. All I can tell you is that 1958, the funds rate averaged to 1.5% and the 10-year note averaged 3%. If you’re going to ask me if we have a realistic chance of going back and retesting the June 2003 lows and the 10-year note or the March 2008 lows and the 10-year note, I firmly believe that’s going to happen. I believe that’s going to also provide you with very handsome total returns.

Quelle: The Elusive Bottom

Fundamentals or Speculation? A Critical Review of CFTC’S Interagency Task Force Report on Crude Oil Markets

Ein Lesetipp für mitlesende Trader,

Fundamentals or Speculation? A Critical Review of CFTC’S Interagency Task Force Report on Crude Oil Markets – pdf

Der im Juli publizierte CFTC-Report über den Ölmarkt wird in Augenschein genommen.

Inflation Not The Problem

Auf ein besonderes Vergnügen hat John Mauldin diese Woche in seinem ‘Outside the Box’ hingewiesen – ein Interview / Gespräch mit James Montier und Albert Edwards, beide ehemals bei der Dredsner Kleinwort Wasserstein und inzwischen bei der Societe Generale.

Kritisch werden die Märkte / globale Konjunktur / Kreditkrise / Preisbewegungen etc. betrachtet.

Daraus der folgende Cartoon ;-)

zum Vergrössern auf das Bild clicken

Der Link zu - Inflation Not The Problem , auf englisch, aber trotzdem ein MUST READ.