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Die Bubble-Maschine – und läuft…und läuft…und läuft

US-China Trade

“For the first eight months of 2009, China’s goods exports to
the United States were $184.9 billion, while U.S. exports to China
were $41.2 billion, with China’s trade surplus standing at $143.7
billion, a decrease of 17.8 percent over the same period last year
($169.2 billion).“

Quelle:
2009 REPORT TO CONGRESS of the
U.S.-CHINA ECONOMIC AND
SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION, Seite 21

Ich meine die Rede von Sen. Bunning zur Renominierung von Ben Shalom Bernanke…

verdient es hier gewürdigt zu werden ;-) :

Sen. Bunning implies he will fillibuster Bernanke’s re-nomination as Fed Chairman.
****************************************************************************************************

Bunning Statement On The Re-Nomination Of Ben Bernanke To Be Chairman Of The Federal Reserve

Senate Banking Committee
Thursday, December 3, 2009

As Prepared For Delivery:

Four years ago when you came before the Senate for confirmation to be Chairman of the Federal Reserve, I was the only Senator to vote against you.  In fact, I was the only Senator to even raise serious concerns about you.  I opposed you because I knew you would continue the legacy of Alan Greenspan, and I was right.  But I did not know how right I would be and could not begin to imagine how wrong you would be in the following four years.

The Greenspan legacy on monetary policy was breaking from the Taylor Rule to provide easy money, and thus inflate bubbles.  Not only did you continue that policy when you took control of the Fed, but you supported every Greenspan rate decision when you were on the Fed earlier this decade.  Sometimes you even wanted to go further and provide even more easy money than Chairman Greenspan.  As recently as a letter you sent me two weeks ago, you still refuse to admit Fed actions played any role in inflating the housing bubble despite overwhelming evidence and the consensus of economists to the contrary.  And in your efforts to keep filling the punch bowl, you cranked up the printing press to buy mortgage securities, Treasury securities, commercial paper, and other assets from Wall Street.  Those purchases, by the way, led to some nice profits for the Wall Street banks and dealers who sold them to you, and the G.S.E. purchases seem to be illegal since the Federal Reserve Act only allows the purchase of securities backed by the government.

On consumer protection, the Greenspan policy was don’t do it.  You went along with his policy before you were Chairman, and continued it after you were promoted.  The most glaring example is it took you two years to finally regulate subprime mortgages after Chairman Greenspan did nothing for 12 years.  Even then, you only acted after pressure from Congress and after it was clear subprime mortgages were at the heart of the economic meltdown.  On other consumer protection issues you only acted as the time approached for your re-nomination to be Fed Chairman.

Alan Greenspan refused to look for bubbles or try to do anything other than create them.  Likewise, it is clear from your statements over the last four years that you failed to spot the housing bubble despite many warnings.

Chairman Greenspan’s attitude toward regulating banks was much like his attitude toward consumer protection.  Instead of close supervision of the biggest and most dangerous banks, he ignored the growing balance sheets and increasing risk.  You did no better.  In fact, under your watch every one of the major banks failed or would have failed if you did not bail them out.

On derivatives, Chairman Greenspan and other Clinton Administration officials attacked Brooksley Born when she dared to raise concerns about the growing risks.  They succeeded in changing the law to prevent her or anyone else from effectively regulating derivatives.  After taking over the Fed, you did not see any need for more substantial regulation of derivatives until it was clear that we were headed to a financial meltdown thanks in part to those products.

The Greenspan policy on transparency was talk a lot, use plenty of numbers, but say nothing.  Things were so bad one TV network even tried to guess his thoughts by looking at the briefcase he carried to work.  You promised Congress more transparency when you came to the job, and you promised us more transparency when you came begging for TARP.  To be fair, you have published some more information than before, but those efforts are inadequate and you still refuse to provide details on the Fed’s bailouts last year and on all the toxic waste you have bought.

And Chairman Greenspan sold the Fed’s independence to Wall Street through the so-called “Greenspan Put”.  Whenever Wall Street needed a boost, Alan was there.  But you went far beyond that when you bowed to the political pressures of the Bush and Obama administrations and turned the Fed into an arm of the Treasury.  Under your watch, the Bernanke Put became a bailout for all large financial institutions, including many foreign banks.  And you put the printing presses into overdrive to fund the government’s spending and hand out cheap money to your masters on Wall Street, which they use to rake in record profits while ordinary Americans and small businesses can’t even get loans for their everyday needs.

Now, I want to read you a quote:  “I believe that the tools available to the banking agencies, including the ability to require adequate capital and an effective bank receivership process are sufficient to allow the agencies to minimize the systemic risks associated with large banks.  Moreover, the agencies have made clear that no bank is too-big-too-fail, so that bank management, shareholders, and un-insured debt holders understand that they will not escape the consequences of excessive risk-taking.  In short, although vigilance is necessary, I believe the systemic risk inherent in the banking system is well-managed and well-controlled.”

That should sound familiar, since it was part of your response to a question I asked about the systemic risk of large financial institutions at your last confirmation hearing.  I’m going to ask that the full question and answer be included in today’s hearing record.

Now, if that statement was true and you had acted according to it, I might be supporting your nomination today.  But since then, you have decided that just about every large bank, investment bank, insurance company, and even some industrial companies are too big to fail.  Rather than making management, shareholders, and debt holders feel the consequences of their risk-taking, you bailed them out.  In short, you are the definition of moral hazard.

Instead of taking that money and lending to consumers and cleaning up their balance sheets, the banks started to pocket record profits and pay out billions of dollars in bonuses.  Because you bowed to pressure from the banks and refused to resolve them or force them to clean up their balance sheets and clean out the management, you have created zombie banks that are only enriching their traders and executives.  You are repeating the mistakes of Japan in the 1990s on a much larger scale, while sowing the seeds for the next bubble.  In the same letter where you refused to admit any responsibility for inflating the housing bubble, you also admitted that you do not have an exit strategy for all the money you have printed and securities you have bought.  That sounds to me like you intend to keep propping up the banks for as long as they want.

Even if all that were not true, the A.I.G. bailout alone is reason enough to send you back to Princeton.  First you told us A.I.G. and its creditors had to be bailed out because they posed a systemic risk, largely because of the credit default swaps portfolio.  Those credit default swaps, by the way, are over the counter derivatives that the Fed did not want regulated.  Well, according to the TARP Inspector General, it turns out the Fed was not concerned about the financial condition of the credit default swaps partners when you decided to pay them off at par.  In fact, the Inspector General makes it clear that no serious efforts were made to get the partners to take haircuts, and one bank’s offer to take a haircut was declined.  I can only think of two possible reasons you would not make then-New York Fed President Geithner try to save the taxpayers some money by seriously negotiating or at least take up U.B.S. on their offer of a haircut.  Sadly, those two reasons are incompetence or a desire to secretly funnel more money to a few select firms, most notably Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch, and a handful of large European banks.  I also cannot understand why you did not seek European government contributions to this bailout of their banking system.

From monetary policy to regulation, consumer protection, transparency, and independence, your time as Fed Chairman has been a failure.  You stated time and again during the housing bubble that there was no bubble.  After the bubble burst, you repeatedly claimed the fallout would be small.  And you clearly did not spot the systemic risks that you claim the Fed was supposed to be looking out for.  Where I come from we punish failure, not reward it.  That is certainly the way it was when I played baseball, and the way it is all across America.  Judging by the current Treasury Secretary, some may think Washington does reward failure, but that should not be the case.  I will do everything I can to stop your nomination and drag out the process as long as possible.  We must put an end to your and the Fed’s failures, and there is no better time than now.

http://bunning.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=NewsCenter.NewsReleases&ContentRecord_id=556a0e84-feaa-d20f-2867-6793698d6974&Region_id=&Issue_id=&IsPrint=true

US credit crunch continues … für kleine und mittlere Firmen

Gretchen Morgenson NYT

“We are in unknown territory here,” he said. “Since the peak in October ’08, bank credit has dropped
by 8 percent. That is enormous and it is accelerating. The peak-to-trough drop in the early ’90s was just
1.3 percent and that was enough to scare the pants off the Fed.”
This credit cave-in is the driving force behind the Federal Reserve’s mortgage purchase program, Mr.
Shepherdson says. The last thing the central bank wants to see is a decline in the broad-based money
supply, because when that happens it usually means a depression is afoot. Money supply didn’t fall in the
early 1990s, but it fell by one-quarter during the 1930s.
The Fed’s asset purchase program is therefore not about driving down mortgage rates, Mr.
Shepherdson says, but about trying to prevent a collapse in the money supply. When the Fed buys assets it
creates deposits, which, in turn, helps offset the credit pullback. If the Fed wasn’t buying mortgages with
both hands, Mr. Shepherdson estimates, the money supply would be falling 1 percent a month.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/29/business/economy/29gret.html?_r=1&ref=business

Modern day bank robbers … der eine oder andere Politclown kapiert es langsam …

US Senator Byron Dorgan:

It’s one of the most frustrating things. We essentially have had modern-day bankrobbers — except that they wore gray suits and not masks — and there’s been no accountability for it …
Every day we see energy speculators, war profiteers, managed health-care providers, media
propagandists, and/or financiers given some unfair advantage over the average consumers and
taxpayers, and the cumulative effect of the American people watching selfishness prevail over the public interest has been an undermining of the public’s trust in government.
This “anything goes” approach to capitalism has injured the very economy we have aspired to create.
I’m a big fan of the free-market system…This is not about a liberal or conservative philosophy. It is
about making sure our economy and the free-market system work for everybody…
There’s no question the system is rigged against the little guy. The bigger interests have a lot more
information. They jerry-rig the system so that they always win…
One is to separate investment banks and FDIC-insured banks. Second, prohibit FDIC-insured banks
from dealing in risky financial instruments on their own proprietary accounts… And third, abolish “too big to fail.” If you’re too big to fail, you’re too big. Too big to fail is what I call no-fault capitalism..
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/11/12/byron-dorgans-financial-p_n_355659.html

KID Konjunktur-Indikator Deutschland im November 2009

Ausbruch nach oben ?

die aktuelle Ausgabe des KID Konjunktur-Indikators Deutschland:
KID Konjunktur-Indikator Deutschland im  November 2009

hier bitte weiterlesen…

Be Prepared for the Worst …

Ron Paul in Forbes

The large-scale government intervention in the economy is going to end badly.

hier ist noch einer der es kommen sah … schon 1995

damals hatte Robert Rubin darauf gedrängt den Glass-Steagall Akt zu beseitigen. Ich hoffe es ist i.O. den alten Leserbrief komplett zu publizieren :

NY Times
End Bank Law and Robber Barons Ride Again
Published: Sunday, March 5, 1995

To the Editor:

Re “For Rogue Traders, Yet Another Victim” (Business Day, Feb. 28) and your same-day article on Treasury Secretary Robert E. Rubin’s proposal to eliminate the legal barriers that have separated the nation’s commercial banks, securities firms and insurance companies for decades: The American Bankers Association, Senator Alfonse M. D’Amato, Representative Jim Leach and Treasury Secretary Rubin are gravely misguided in their quest to repeal the Glass-Steagall Act.

Their contention that insurance companies, commercial banks and securities firms should be freed from legislative obstructions is predicated on fallacious, historically inaccurate statements. If the Baring Brothers failure does not give them pause, a history lesson is our only hope before the Administration and bank lobby iron out their differences and set the economy back 90 years.

The argument that American financial intermediaries will become “more efficient and more internationally competitive” is false. The American financial system is the most stable, most profitable and most dynamic in the world.

The notion that Glass-Steagall prevents American financial intermediaries from fulfilling their utmost potential in a global marketplace reflects inadequate understanding of the events that precipitated the act and the similarities between today’s financial marketplace and the market nearly a century ago.

Although Glass-Steagall was enacted during the Great Depression, it was put in place because the Aldrich-Vreeland Act of 1908, the blue-sky laws following 1910 and the Federal Reserve System of 1913 failed to keep the concentration of financial power in check. The investment climate that ultimately led to Glass-Steagall was one filled with emerging markets, interlocking control of productive resources and widespread bank ownership of securities.

Ever since railroad securities began driving secondary capital markets in the late 1860’s, “emerging markets” have existed for investors looking for high-yield opportunities, and banks have been primary agents in industrial development. In the 19th century, emerging markets were scattered throughout the United States, and capital flowed into them from New York, Boston, Philadelphia and London. In the same way, capital flows from the United States, Japan and England to Latin America and the Pacific rim — today we just have more terms to define the market mechanisms.

The economy and financial markets were even more interconnected in the 19th century than now. Commercial and investment banks could accept deposits, issue currency, underwrite securities and own industrial enterprises. With Glass-Steagall lifted, we will chart a course returning us to that environment.

J. P. Morgan and Andrew Mellon made their billions through inter locking directorates and outright ownership of hundreds of nationally prominent enterprises. Glass-Steagall is one crucial piece of a litany of legislation designed to place checks and balances on the concentration of financial resources. To repeal it would be tantamount to bringing back the days of the robber barons.

The unbridled activities of those gifted financiers crumbled under the dynamic forces of the capital marketplace. If you take away the checks, the market forces will eventually knock the system off balance.

MARK D. SAMBER
Stamford, Conn.
Feb. 28, 1995

The writer is a management consultant specializing in business history.

Globale Stahlproduktion im September 2009

Während des zweiten Halbjahres 2008 war die globale Stahlproduktion um ca. 1/3 von 121,1 Mio. Tonnen im Mai 2008 auf ein zyklisches Tief bei 82,1 Mio. Tonnen gesunken. Von diesen Tiefständen setzte sukzessiv eine Erholung ein.

World Steel Association (worldsteel) meldete zuletzt für den September 2009  eine globale Produktion von 107,0 Mio. Tonnen; damit wurde der fünfte Monatsanstieg infolge verbucht, im Vergleich zum Vorjahresmonat notiert die Produktion lediglich -0,6% tiefer.

Im Bild das Produktionsvolumen (gelb) wie auch die jährliche Wachstumsrate (blau):

Globale Stahlproduktion - Volumen vs. Jahresrate

Regional verläuft die Erholung sehr unterschiedlich; getrieben wird die globale Entwicklung vornehmlich durch China, aber auch Japan weist bessere Wachstumszahlen als zum Beispiel die EU oder NAFTA aus. Seit dem Juni diesen Jahres markiert das Volumen der chinesischen Stahlproduktion neue Allzeithochs, in der EU oder NAFTA liegt das Niveau 70,2% respektive 60,3% unter dem des Hochs vom Mai 2008.

Folgender Chart demonstriert die unterschiedliche regionale Entwicklung:

globale Stahlproduktion - regionale Entwicklung

China hat jetzt einen Anteil an der globalen Stahlproduktion von 47,4%, gefolgt von Japan mit 7,7%. Der deutsche Anteil liegt bei 3,0%; die EU insgesamt produziert 12,3%. Nimmt man die BRIC-Staaten zusammen, kommen diese auf 58,7%.

Die prozentualen Verteilung der Regionen zeigt nachstehender Chart:

Globale Stahlproduktion - prozentuale Verteilung

100 insolvente US Banken – kein Jubiläum, das zum Feiern einlädt

Die Marke von 100 insolventen US Banken in 2009 ist gefallen. Ein Ende ist nicht in Sicht.

Diesen Freitag wurden sieben weitere US Banken von der FDIC geschlossen, sodass die Anzahl der insolventen Banken für das Jahr 2009 bereits bei 106 liegt. Die Partners Bank in Naples, Florida, hat die runde Anzahl komplettiert. Im Rahmen der aktuellen Kreditkrise ereilte bisher 131 Banken ein vergleichbares Schicksal. Seit 1992 (181) ist dies die größte Anzahl; für ein einzelnes Jahr datiert der Höchststand bei 534 insolventen Banken aus dem Jahre 1989.

Das Gesamtvermögen der insolventen Banken beläuft sich bisher in 2009 auf gut 107 Mrd. USD. Im Vergleich zu 2008 hat die Anzahl der betroffenen Bundesstaaten deutlich zugelegt; in 2008 waren es noch 12 Bundesstaaten, während die Anzahl bisher bei 31 notiert. Die Bankenschwäche fokussiert sich vornehmlich auf Georgia mit 20 geschlossenen Banken, Illinois (17), Kalifornien (10) und Florida (9).

Im Bild die Anzahl der jährlich geschlossenen Banken, die beim US amerikanischen Einlagensicherungsfond FDIC versichert waren:

Anzahl der insolventen Banken

Die zuletzt veröffentlichte “Liste der Problembanken” wies zum Ende des zweiten Quartal 2009 416 Banken aus.

John Mauldin hat in seinem Wochenbericht “The Hole in FDIC” (19.9.2009) eine IRA-Studie (Institutional Risk Analytics) zitiert, die aktuell von 2256 problembehafteten Banken ausgeht. Es wird damit gerechnet, dass 1000 Banken im Rahmen der aktuellen Krise entweder Pleite gehen oder übernommen werden.

Tabelle

Sheila Bair, die FDIC-Vorsitzende, sieht sich veranlasst den US Bürgern per Youtube-Video zu versichern, ihre Spareinlagen seien sicher. Eine Phrase, die hierzulande an Altersbezüge erinnert.

UK GDP (BIP) 3. Quartal 2009 – Minus 0,4 Prozent gegenüber 2. Quartal; Minus 5,3 Prozent gegenüber Vorjahresquartal

Contributions to Growth
Contributions to Growth

Details

Ein desolates Detail aus der Oppenheim-Arcandor-Saga

Hat Lord Griffith George Orwell gelesen ?

So titelte heute der Telegraph. Lord Griffith ist Vice President von Goldman Sachs International.

(sozusagen Hillary Clinton`s Schatten)

Zur Rechtfertigung der Bankster Boni meinte seine Lordschaft :

In St Paul’s Cathedral yesterday he told the public, “tolerate the inequality as a way to achieve greater prosperity for all”.

In chapter three of Animal Farm, Squealer told the animals: “The whole management and organization of this farm depend on us. Day and night we are watching over your welfare. It is for your sake that we drink that milk and eat those apples.”

Bernanke fordert von Asien den Dollar schneller fallen zu lassen …

Klarer kann man die Richtung des $ Index eigentlich nicht mehr formulieren :

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke warned on Monday that Asian export-promotion policies and large U.S. budget deficits could refuel global economic imbalances and put efforts to achieve more durable growth at risk if not curbed.

“One way to address it would be through some greater exchange rate flexibility,” Bernanke said.

Irgendwie muss ich Geithner´s und Obama´s Strong Dollar Policy nicht richtig verstanden haben.

Sehr treffend auch noch diese Bemerkung :

“Trade surpluses achieved through policies that artificially enhance incentives for domestic saving and the production of export goods distort the mix of domestic industries and the allocation of resources, resulting in an economy that is less able to meet the needs of its own citizens in the longer term, he said.

Schön dass die amerikanische Wirtschaft die Bedürfnisse ihre Bürger selbst befriedigen kann …

Nobelpreisträger Krugman …

Dr. Krugman gewährte in dieser Woche den Lesern der NYT wieder einmal Einblicke in seine brillianten geld- und wirtschaftspolitischen Erkenntnisse :

Misguided Monetary Mentalities

Auszüge :

“One lesson from the Great Depression is that you should never underestimate the destructive power of bad ideas. And some of the bad ideas that helped cause the Depression have, alas, proved all too durable: in modified form, they continue to influence economic debate today.”

Mit Bad Ideas meint Herr Dr. Krugman die seltsamen Vorstellungen anderer Ökonomen die in der hemmungslosen Schuldenmacherei der Staaten nicht die Lösung der Krise sondern Inflation und eine Gefahr für das globale System sehen.

… good news :

“Consider first the current uproar over the declining international value of the dollar.  The truth is that the falling dollar is good news. For one thing, it’s mainly the result of rising confidence…”

Er glaubt also der Grund für den Verkauf einer Währung ist Ausdruck steigenden Vertrauens  in diesselbe….und weiter:

And a lower dollar is good for U.S. exporters, helping us make the transition away from huge trade deficits to a more sustainable international position.

Dazu meinte Marc Faber vor Jahren in einem anderen Zusammenhang” to spend it on prostitutes and beer, since these are the only products still produced in US.” Das ist natürlich stark übertrieben, unsere amerikanischen Freunde können doch immerhin noch großartige Massenvernichtungswaffen herstellen und dieser Markt wird trotz des neuen Friedensnobelpreisträgerpräsidenten sicher weiter wachsen. Ich bin auch schon sehr gespannt zu sehen wie sich das Handelsdefizit bei einem Ölpreis von 80 oder 100 USD entwickelt … und dann liefert Dr. Krugman sozusagen das Sahnehäubchen :

“I don’t know what analysis lies behind these itchy trigger fingers. ( damit meint er die Forderung nach vorzeitige Anhebung der Fed Zinsen )  But it probably isn’t about analysis, anyway — it’s about mentality, the sense that central banks are supposed to act tough, not provide easy credit. And it’s crucial that we don’t let this mentality guide policy.”

Mit einer Inflationistenmentalität kann es demnach nur besser werden  … wie sagen die Bayern … schaun mer mal! Vielleicht gibt es schlimmeres als 10 Jahre ohne Wachstum ?

KID Konjunktur-Indikator Deutschland im Oktober 2009

Auf dem Entscheidungspunkt

die aktuelle Ausgabe des KID Konjunktur-Indikators Deutschland:
KID Konjunktur-Indikator Deutschland im Oktober 2009

hier bitte weiterlesen…