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CREDIT CONTRACTION CONTINUES

nicht nur in D :

David Rosenberg zu den ständigen Manipulationen der US Daten :
It’s fascinating to watch this game when it comes to the release of the Fed’s consumer credit data. The data for December, which came out on February 5, came in far better than expected — falling only $1.7bln in December versus expectations of -$10.0bln. At the same time, the November figure, to very little fanfare, was revised to -$23.9bln from -$17.5bln initially. And last then this past Friday, December consumer credit was revised lower, by $2.9bln, to now show -$4.6bln from -$1.7bln initially. Hmmm. So what we have here are the revisions in the data over the last two months painting a much different picture of the level of improvement.
Revolving consumer credit (credit cards) slid $1.7 billion in January and the level, at $864.4 billion, is now the lowest since October 2006…
… This is key and attests to the lingering consumer frugality theme
We don’t like to appear as conspiracy theorists, but if you recall, the equity market bottomed on February 5 on two pieces of news that triggered a significant intra-day reversal. The first was the initial hints of an EU rescue plan for Greece. Later in the day, December’s consumer credit data were released, showing a modest decline of $1.7 billion versus the estimate of a $10 billion contraction. When you take into account the downward revision to November, what comes out of the wash is a December level of consumer credit outstanding that is was actually $6 billion lower than expected. But obviously not the way the data are being treated by Wall Street research departments or the media for that matter.

1 Kommentar

1 Frank - 28.03.2010 um 21:11

Was mich besonders an den ständigen Revisionen stört ist, dass die Aussagen von ökonometrischen Modellen verfälscht werden.

Seit wann ist David Rosenberg eigentlich nicht mehr bei ML? Die jetzige Firma Gluskin Sheff scheint um einiges kleiner zu sein. Weiss jemand was der Grund fuer den Wechsel war?

Beste Grüsse,
Frank

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