Das B/D Model und seasonal adjustments werden m.E. auch weiterhin die Arbeitsmarktzahlen verfälschen.

John Crudele NY Post:

The charade continues this Friday.
That’s when the Labor Department will announce how many jobs it claims were lost in the US
economy during December.
The number is essentially worthless to anyone who really wants to know what’s cooking in the job
market. But it is worse than worthless — it’s harmful — to policymakers who are trying to determine
what to do about things like interest rates and the latest incarnation of the stock market bubble.
For the record, Wall Street thinks that the department will report that no jobs were lost — zero –
during December. This comes after only 11,000 jobs were reported lost in November, the first pleasant
surprise in months for those who foolishly care about these statistics…
In fact, the Labor Department has already said that when it reports its next set of statistics on Feb. 4 it
will reduce the number of jobs that it believes existed in this country from April 2007 through March
2008 by around 820,000.
2
And people inside Labor also admit that the department mistakenly believed these 820,000 jobs
existed mostly because of incorrect assumptions by its birth/death model…
Now get this! That 820,000 mistake only corrects the numbers as of last March.
The birth/death model since this past April has added an additional 900,000 jobs. And eventually those 900,000 jobs will probably also have to be extracted from the Labor Department’s count.
But it gets worse. The Labor Department tells me that despite the huge corrections, it still believes its birth/death model is working well because it is tracking closely the Census Bureau’s quarterly surveys of employment and wages.
In other words, the Labor Department doesn’t think it needs to change its belief that small companies are popping up everywhere and creating large numbers of jobs.
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/why_the_government_job_figures_won_SF8z4SR9LG0at4gQjNj5eO