http://www.markt-daten.de/research/maerkte/funds.htm

MfG Helmut Wüllenweber

Interessant wird sein, wie sich die jetzigen Bondhalter in den nächsten Monaten positionieren werden. Deren Anteil ist mit zuletzt 18,2% immer noch vergleichsweise hoch.

“The people necessary to drive the kind of increase in spending that would justify this year’s sizzling move in markets are consumers at the high end, the top 5% of households who own no less than 84% of equities. Yet, all the evidence suggests, they’re far from spending with their old abandon.

Stephanie speculates that one reason for their reluctance could be that while stocks have rallied, thus enriching their portfolios, dividends have been relentlessly shrinking: the $775 billion-plus annual dividend windfall the affluent had grown accustomed to has been slashed by a third or so. Or, it just may be that “even for the high-end, housing deflation outweighs equity inflation.”

und weiter :

The agent of the great awakening will be gathering pressures on the credit market, as banks are “forced to re-provision, and resurgent delinquencies find Fannie and Freddie (and everyone else) putting ill-made mortgages back to lenders.”

Credit will grow dear and do so precisely as the demand for it from borrowers looking to roll over maturing obligations swells.

The numbers, Stephanie exclaims, are unbelievably big. Uncle Sam must roll over $2.5 trillion in debt during the next two years, banks worldwide have some $7 trillion due in the same stretch and commercial real estate will weigh in with another $750 billion.

Ein gutes gesundes Neues Jahr !