Laffer zu den Ursachen der Grossen Depression
und zu dem immer wieder gern behaupteten Zusammenhang von schwacher Konjunktur und Deflation :
Taxes, Depression, and Our Current Troubles
…… The deflation of the early 1930s was not caused by tight money. It was the result of panic purchases of fixed-dollar priced gold. From the end of 1929 until early 1933 the Consumer Price Index fell by 27%.
By mid-1932 there were public fears of a change in the gold-dollar relationship. In their classic text, “A Monetary History of the United States,” economists Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz wrote, “Fears of devaluation were widespread and the public’s preference for gold was unmistakable.” Panic ensued and there was a rush to buy gold…..
….The consumer price index from early 1933 through mid-1937 rose by about 15% in spite of double-digit unemployment. And that’s the story.
The lessons here are pretty straightforward. Inflation can and did occur during a depression, and that inflation was strictly a monetary phenomenon.
am 22. September 2009, 20:11 | 3 Kommentare| 
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3 Kommentare
…was immer Herr Laffer meint in Ehren, aber die Periode zwischen 1933 und 1937 mit dem Wort Inflation zu belegen, geht mir persönlich etwas zu weit…
http://www.economics-charts.com/cpi/cpi-1913.html
Das ist ein hilfloses Festklammern an erwiesenermaßen falschen Thesen durch Laffer. Leicht ersichtlich an der BIP Entwicklung der USA von 33 bis 37. Die war nämlich wie die Inflation positiv!
http://www.urbandigs.com/great-depression-gdp.jpg
Nimmt man dieses Diagramm und das von Jabberwock kann jeder wirklich jeder sofort den Zusammenhang zwischen Inflation und BIP Veränderung sehen.
Das ist von Laffer zu halten:
“In the run-up to the “great recession” of 2008 and 2009, Laffer dismissed the then-minority view that the sub-prime mortgage crisis was a precursor to a major market correction. Indeed, Laffer predicted that the economy would continue to expand unabated by the growing credit crisis.”
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