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China to the rescue …

China’s National Bureau of Statistics released fourth quarter GDP growth statistics for 2008 today, and it turns out that (according to their initial estimates) the Chinese economy expanded by 6.8 per cent in the last quarter of the year when compared with the same period in 2007. This was the weakest quarterly year on year growth rate in seven years. For the year as a whole, the economy grew 9 per cent, down from the revised 13 per cent growth rate in 2007.

China must surely devalue Investors now reluctantly accept that this recession is the worst since The Great Depression…Yet beware: outright deflation has already arrived and world trade is collapsing.
Korean GDP has just declined a MASSIVE annualized 21% in 2008 Q4! China is now joining the rest of the world in the stinking cesspit of uncontrolled economic slump…
The data out of Asia today was truly shocking and removes any lingering doubt in my mind whether we are truly facing a global economic depression. The 20% annualized collapse in South
Korean GDP in Q4 last year was not the worst of it. Japanese exports declined at a record annual pace, contracting an incredible 35% yoy!…

Strikingly, Japanese exports to the US were down some 37% yoy, losing some 26pp since the 11% yoy contraction in July. But we cannot highlight strongly enough how truly mindboggling Japan’s collapse in exports to China are. Last July they were expanding at a 16% yoy pace. Now they are contracting at a 35% yoy rate! This is a phenomenon throughout the region. Hence despite the notoriously manipulated Chinese GDP data showing a shocking slowdown in GDP growth to 6.8% yoy, I would eat my hat if the Chinese economy was doing anything other than contracting right now. Albert Edwards Societe Generale

1 Kommentar

1 martin r - 25.01.2009 um 21:28

200 Millionen Wanderarbeiter sind im Moment in China auf ihrem 4-wöchigen Neujahrsurlaub (=vergleichbar den Sommerferien in Deutschland). Was dann?

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