Die Originalmeldung klingt dann doch pessimistischer als der Anstieg des Verbrauchersentiments der Uni Michigan vermuten lässt. Der Index wurde am Freitag in der endgültigen Fassung für den Juli von ursprünglich 56,6 auf 61,2 nach oben revidiert. Das 28-Jahretief bei 56,4 im Juni wurde verlassen, aber nichtsdestotrotz, in der 52-jährigen Geschichte des Indexes hat dieser weniger ein Duzend Mal tiefer notiert.

Die Erwartungskomponente wurde von 48,3 auf 53,5 revidiert (im Juni 49,2) und die Einschätzung der aktuellen Situation von 69,5 auf 73,1 ebenfalls nach oben revidiert (im Juni zuvor 67,6).

Auszüge aus der Originalmeldung:

“Even after the small July gain, the overall level of consumer confidence is dismal and still points toward declines in the pace of spending in late 2008 and early 2009,” according to Richard Curtin, the Director of the Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. The gains could signal that consumers simply overestimated the extent of the economic damage or even that they now sense that the end of the economy’s decline is on the distant horizon. “It is more likely that the gains in confidence reflect a “dead cat bounce,” a phenomena has been repeatedly observed over the past fifty years: following a steep decline in confidence a small gain is recorded before confidence resumes its downward slide,” Curtin explained.

….

The extent of the economic damage reported by consumers remained sizable. More than half of all consumers reported that their financial situation worsened due to higher food and fuel prices and half anticipated that their overall living standards would decline in the year ahead. While the anticipated declines in inflation-adjusted incomes were mainly due to higher expected inflation, consumers also anticipate shorter work hours, fewer bonuses, and smaller wage gains.

Nine-in-ten consumers thought the economy was in recession, with record numbers citing unfavorable news about rising prices, lost jobs, slowing economic growth, falling stock prices, and the continuing fallout from the credit and housing crises. Six-in-ten consumers expected the unemployment rate to rise and three-in-four anticipated the continuation of bad times financially in the economy during the year ahead. “The appraisals of consumers of their own finances as well as conditions in the national economy remained very negative, near the worst levels recorded in the fifty-year history of the surveys,” Curtin said.

Im Bild schaut es dann so aus