BCA Research sieht anhand der globalen Frühindikatoren eine Wachstumsabschwächung auch ausserhalb der G7-Staaten. Zeit für eine Korrektur der Rohstoffmärkte.

Is A Commodity Correction Approaching?

10:13:00, May 28, 2008

Our global Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) is signaling that some contagion from the U.S. slowdown is spreading beyond the G7 countries, which could finally trigger a shakeout in commodity prices.

Since the end of 2006 there has been an unprecedented divergence between the G7 and non-G7 LEI. However, the steady decline of the non-G7 indicator warns that some contagion may soon develop. Though the worst of the U.S. economic slide may be past, a long period of sluggishness seems probable, and there remain downside risks given the ongoing housing slump and relentless rise in energy prices. Bottom line: A slowing in non-G7 economic growth at a time when the U.S. is still weak could be the catalyst for the long overdue correction in commodity prices. We would hold back from putting fresh funds to work until overbought conditions and sentiment ease.



Quelle: BCA Research