Im Folgenden werden Einschätzungen zur US-Konjunktur wiedergegeben; auf Rezessionskurs setzt Goldman Sachs; während Ed Yardeni noch eine Wachstumsrate des Bruttoinlandsproduktes von fast 2,5% prognostiziert.

Der graphische Überblick:

Dazu kurze Zusammenfassungen:

Goldman Sachs

• There will be a recession in 2008
- 2 to 3 quarters in duration
- Shallow -0.375 GDP for the year
- Profits growth will slow to 7.5% y/y
• Optimistic about longer-term
- Productivity will rebound
- Growth back to 3% without being inflationary
• December retail sales reflect only modest slowdown so far

Kiplinger

• CPI up 4.1% through December y/y
• Month of December up only 0.3% with lower energy prices
• 2008 inflation 3% as energy prices will moderate
• Still difficult for Fed to keep rates low too long
• Tax stimulus plan by early February
- $800 rebate for low and middle income taxpayers
- Business: Faster depreciation write-off and investment incentives to create jobs
- Total cost $150 billion
• Fed will supply stimulus sooner with 50 bp on January 30
• Inflation a concern Fed will address later this year

Merrill Lynch

• Four months after first Fed rate cut the stock market has declined – the Fed is easing in a recessionary backdrop
• GDP for 2008 1.125%
• GDP for 2009 2.000%
• Fed funds rate Dec 2008 2.00%
• 10 year treasury Dec 2008 3.70%

PIMCO

• GDP 1% in 2008
• Fed funds rate 3%
• 30 year mortgage 5.0% – 5.5%
- Refinancing boom
- Affordable housing will stabilize housing market
• Dollar will continue to weaken against emerging economies but may have bottomed against Euro and Pound

WSJ

• Weak dollar and high cost of oil
- Oil priced in Euro equivalent is $57
• Weak dollar reduces trade deficit with export boom, but makes imported oil much more expensive
• Lower interest rates will further weaken dollar limiting the intended stimulus
• Foreign capital funding banks, investment banks
- Concern that sovereign foreign funds will work together to exercise control
- Existing shareholders do not like dilution
- However, better than selling asset which spreads credit crunch from Wall Street to Main Street
• Investors owning 5% or more of a bank may be subject to Bank Holding Company Act
• Deals of 10% or more (investment banks) subject to Treasury Department scrutiny
• Political risk too – Committee on Foreign Investment in US
• Typically 10% or less passive investment will fly under the radar
• Foreign capital
- Bolsters our financial institutions
- Facilitates global free markets

Yardeni

• December retail sales not that bad – November, December together show modest y/y growth in sales
• Citigroup – mortgage crisis leaking into consumer lending and credit card operations
• Can US economy count on the consumer?
- We think so, but they will need to retrench for a few months
- Productivity gains will continue to bolster consumer
• Some portfolio managers don’t like my recommendation to underweight financial and consumer discretionary sectors
- Now offer good values
- May be better than sectors that have not corrected
• Are we talking ourselves into a recession?
  The good news:
- Treasury yields down 50 bp in anticipation of Fed cut
- Mortgage refinancing is taking off and will bolster consumer
- Lower rates may provide support for housing market
- Tax relief coming for consumer and business
- Weak dollar boosting US exports
- Oil prices are backing off some
- Foreign investors remain big buyers of US stocks
- In other words – this too shall pass
- Absent financial and consumer discretionary sectors, the other eight S&P 500 sectors show good earnings momentum at this time
- Market looks cheap to me
- Isn’t likely to improve much until all the worries about a US and global recession are over
• Wall Street financial engineers deserve large portion of the blame for credit crisis:
- Paying themselves up front fees for structured derivatives sure way to produce lots of defective product
- Fixed income investors deserve some blame for buying the product
- Equity investors deserve some blame for exaggerating and overreacting (or the media)
• Stock markets remain very coupled
- Fears of global recession could become selffulfilling prophecy as result of negative wealth effect
• Global decline scenario is so grim
- Bound to be coordinated easing response by central banks
- I think stocks have capitulated
- So now would be the time to buy
• Why the Fed Big Easing should work
- Lower interest rates have always revived economy – Fed intent on avoiding a recession
- Drop in short-term rates cause flow of funds to banks (CDs) – reintermediation: provides funds to make qualified loans
- Conventional mortgage rates are tumbling – boost refinancing, particularly remaining ARMs
- Lower rates mean investors will take on equity risk–stocks cheapest asset class now
- $4.6 trillion in international reserves held in central bank money market funds – pressure to move into sovereign wealth funds and equity markets
- Drop in treasury rates will offset higher yield spreadcost being incurred in capital markets
• Good news
- Industrial analysts expect 2008 and 2009 earnings growth to be 17.4% and 13.0% respectively
- Will happen only if (1) US avoids recession, (2) global growth remains robust, (3) Financials earning comparisons turn positive, (4) dollar remains weak,(5) companies continue to reduce shares outstanding

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