Heute Nachmittag erwarten wir die Revision der ersten Schätzung für das US-Bruttoinlandsproduktes für das vierte Quartal 2007. Ein Grund mehr sich noch einmal Reaktionen auf die erste Veröffentlichung Ende Januar anzuschauen.

Selbst dem ‘Economist’ kam die Publikation suspekt vor, dass von ‘odd numbers’ geschrieben wurde; am 31.1.2008:

Economic statistics – Odd numbers

Why America’s advance GDP figures do not paint the whole picture

AS THE old joke goes, statistics are like a bikini—what they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital. America’s advance GDP figures tend to be more of a bathing suit than a bikini: they are a bit outdated and hide as much as they show. Nevertheless, on January 30th it wasn’t just hardened statisticians whose eyes were out on stalks. Fourth-quarter numbers, showing an annualised growth rate of 0.6% (or less than 0.2% in quarterly terms), suggested that America’s economy was barely growing at the end of last year. It was lower than economists had expected.

Financial markets were initially thrown by the data. Toss in a revision or two and it is conceivable that they might have marked the start of a recession—defined as two consecutive quarters of decline.

That could easily happen. Indicators for October and November were much stronger than for December.
Many of the source numbers for December were not available for the advance estimate, so statisticians had to make an informed guess, in some places using the stronger months as a guide.

That said, revisions could go the other way. A large fall in inventories subtracted 1.25 percentage points from fourth-quarter growth, making a far bigger dent than usual in the figures. Changes in inventories, however, are often subject to large revisions. They might well be adjusted upwards later.

The first estimate of America’s GDP is notoriously imprecise, and is probably more so during times of wrenching economic change. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which computes the GDP figures, around 25% of the required source data are not available for the first estimate and only partial information (for example two out of three months’ data) is on hand for a further 30% of sources.

Between 1994 and 2004—years for which figures are no longer likely to be much updated—the average (annualised) revision to the growth rate between the advance and the latest figure was 1.3 percentage points. Recently revisions have tended to be downwards. In the past five years 60% of initial estimates were later restated at a lower rate.

The picture will become clearer on February 28th, when the second estimate of GDP is released. This iteration tends to include sharp revisions, because almost all of the final month’s numbers are available.

Some statisticians argue that there is a case for postponing the GDP data, as countries such as Canada and Australia do, until it is comprehensive. But given how jumpy the markets are at present, a gradual disrobing may be gentler on everyone’s nerves.

‘Merkwürdige Daten’ wollte das Bureau of Economic Analysis nicht auf sich sitzen lassen; der Direktor des BEA sah sich zu einer Antwort veranlasst:

15.2.2008

Statistical proof

SIR – Your article on measuring America’s economic growth (“Odd numbers”, February 2nd) argues that the “advance” estimate of GDP reveals too little about the American economy, stating that it is “more of a bathing suit than a bikini”. I would like to clarify the purpose and accuracy of early GDP estimates.
The advance estimate of GDP provides a quick reading on the economy. According to the Federal Reserve and OECD, this early snapshot is among the timeliest and most accurate estimates of GDP in the world.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis uses a well-established process that incorporates more complete and accurate data as they become available. We regularly publish revisions and the record shows our early estimates may be amended up or down. However, they typically tell the same story of high or low growth, an accelerating or decelerating economy and sector-specific growth contributions.
All economic statistics face a trade-off between timeliness and accuracy. America’s GDP figures strike a responsible balance.

Steven Landefeld
Director
Bureau of Economic Analysis

Wir dürfen zur Kenntnis nehmen, dass die Veröffentlichung des US BIP nicht nur zu den zeitnahesten, sondern auch zu den genauesten der Welt zählen soll.

Im Chartarchiv etwas gewühlt, ergab folgendes interessantes Ergebnis, die erste Revision des BIP für das dritte Quartal 2003 ergab eine ‘Neubewertung’ der Lagerbestände, sodass letztendlich ein Wachstum von +8,2% annualisiert zum Vorquartal, statt der vormals +7,2% ausgewiesenen, gemeldet wurden. Leider nur unzureichend dokumentiert, konnten wir uns in der Vergangenheit häufig genug die Augen reiben, ob dieser abweichenden Einschätzungen.

Das Conference Board meldete heute seinen Index für das US-Verbrauchervertrauen im Februar bei 75,0 Punkten; ein Abschlag von 12,3 Punkten von den revidierten 87,3 des Vormonats. Nimmt man den Irakkrieg aussen vor, so ist dies der tiefste Stand seit dem November 1993 (71,9).

Schaut man sich die Befragung im Einzelnen an, so fällt bei der Einschätzung des aktuellen Arbeitsmarktes auf, dass der Index, der die negative Auffassung wiedergibt, nun deutlich über der positive Einschätzung notiert. ‘Jobs Hard To Get’ stieg von 20,6 auf 23,8, während ‘Jobs Plentiful’ von 23,8 auf 20,6 sanken. In den letzten drei Jahrzehnten ist dies erst das dritte Mal, dass ein solcher Wechsel gesehen wurde (roter Pfeil in unten stehendem Chart). Zu Beginn oder am Ende einer Rezession wurde dies im Sommer 1990 resp. November 2001 beobachtet.

Quelle

Nachdem letzte Woche diverse Rohstoffe ein All-Time-High markierten, nahm sich der ‘Economist’ dieser Entwicklung an. Zuletzt notierte die jährliche Inflationsrate der USA bei +4,3%; das virtuelle Inflationsziel von 1-2% in der Kernrate, also ohne die überlebenswichtigen Lebensmittel und Energieträger, wurde mit +2,5% satt verfehlt.
Trotz eines müden globalen Konjunkturmotors werden die Rohstoffe weiter im Aufwind gesehen.

The price of raw materials continues to rise despite the economic gloom

BANKERS and policymakers may be wringing their hands about the prospects for the world economy, but commodities traders, it seems, see no cause for concern. On February 20th the oil price hit a new record of $101.32 a barrel. Soyabeans and platinum, among others, have also reached record prices in the past week. Vale, a Brazilian mining firm, has persuaded some steelmakers to pay as much as 71% more this year for its iron ore. Across the world the inflationary impact is tangible (see article). In America consumer prices in January were up 4.3% on a year-over-year basis. Excluding food and energy, they were up 2.5%, well above the Federal Reserve’s comfort level.

Despite a few years of rising raw-materials prices, many traders remain bullish in part because of further bad news about supply. A shortage of electricity in South Africa, which has forced several big smelters to shut down, has helped cause platinum’s giddy ascent. The political upheaval in Kenya has pushed tea prices higher. A leaking pipeline in Nigeria and a row between Exxon Mobil and Hugo Chávez, the president of Venezuela, have contributed to oil’s recent gains.

Mining and oil firms are struggling to increase output, partly because it takes years to develop new mines or oilfields, partly because shortages of equipment and labour are hampering expansion, and partly because governments in resource-rich countries are becoming ever more prone to jacking up royalties or expropriating resources. Citigroup, for example, expects global copper production to rise by just 2% this year, even though the price is now five times higher than it was five years ago and stocks amount to less than three days’ demand.

In theory, farmers should be quicker to respond to price signals, since they can easily substitute one crop for another. But the prices of wheat, corn and soyabean are all high, so any big shift towards one crop will come at the expense of the others. There is huge potential to bring more land under cultivation in Ukraine and Kazakhstan—but that would need improvements to infrastructure that could take years.

Meanwhile, most analysts expect demand for raw materials to remain firm despite the gloomy economic news. Although Goldman Sachs, for one, expects oil consumption to fall in America, it also predicts that continued growth in booming spots such as China and India will underpin global demand. The International Energy Agency, a watchdog group for consuming countries, still expects the world’s consumption of oil to rise 1.9% this year.

Worse, rising prices and tightening credit give the firms that process raw materials an incentive to run down their stocks, argues Jeffrey Currie of Goldman Sachs, making prices all the more vulnerable to supply shocks. America’s Department of Agriculture believes global demand for wheat will continue to exceed supply this year. That will push America’s wheat stocks to their lowest level since 1948 (see chart).

Nonetheless, the prospects for demand must have diminished at least somewhat as the world economy has slowed, and the outlook for supply has not worsened dramatically in the past few months. Hence some other factor must be at play. Many analysts blame speculation. As falling interest rates, tumbling stockmarkets and contracting house prices drive investors out of bonds, equities and property, the argument runs, there is lots of money looking for a new home. And since commodities have produced such lavish returns in recent years, and have weathered the recent turmoil relatively unscathed, they are an alluring option.

Citigroup believes that the recent rise in the oil price “is driven principally by a sharp uptick in fund flows.” Lombard Street Research sees an “iron bubble”. Others worry that America’s fiscal stimulus may cause trouble by inflating demand for commodities. In Citigroup’s cheery phrase, “the collapse of one bubble often sows the seeds of the next.”

Quelle

Exemplarisch werden die Weizenlagerbestände im Bild gezeigt; hier die globalen Lagerbestände auf dem niedrigsten Stand seit 1982 mit der letztjährigen Preisexplosion:

Für das zweite Quartal 2008 beträgt die Wahrscheinlichkeit für das Auftreten einer Rezession nach Einschätzung der befragten Volkswirte 49 Prozent.

Merrill Lynch verweist auf den von der Philly Fed veröffentlichten „Survey of Professional Forecasters“. Die Wahrscheinlichkeit einer Rezession im laufenden Quartal wird von den 50 befragten Volkswirten auf 47 Prozent eingeschätzt.

In der Historie war in Folge eines Überschreitens der Marke von 40 Prozent bei dieser Umfrage stets eine Rezession zu beobachten.

Helmut Wüllenweber

Zitat aus dem Januar-KID:

Jahresauftakt vorläufig positiv !
Angesichts der momentanen Stimmungslage erscheint diese Aussage provokativ – doch aus der Verunsicherung zum Jahreswechsel ist inzwischen in der Tat ein erster vorläufiger Hoffnungsschimmer für das Jahr 2008 geworden. Mit besonderer Betonung dabei auf dem Wort “vorläufig”.

Vier Wochen später sieht es nun heute vorläufig so aus, daß sich die Hoffnung vom Jahresauftakt zunächst einmal ausgeschimmert hat. Im Berichtszeitraum gelang es dem KID zwar, sogar noch weiter aufwärts bis fast zur 75%-Linie des Trendkanals B voranzukommen. Da sowohl ifo- als auch ZEW-Index und schließlich auch der Euroland-Einkaufsmanagerindex später ebenfalls eine hoffnungsvolle wenn auch sehr zaghafte Aufwärtswende hinlegten, konnte der KID erneut “First-Mover-Advantage-Punkte” für sich verbuchen. Der erste kräftige Dämpfer folgte dann mit dem trotz erneut starkem Anteil an einzelnen Großaufträgen schwächeren deutschen Auftragseingang. Hiermit blieb der KID grade noch an der eben überwundenen Abwärtstrendlinie C stehen, bevor ausgerechnet zum früh einsetzenden warmen und sonnigen Februar-Frühlingswetter schließlich der weitere Abstieg zum heutigen vorläufigen Gesamtbild erfolgte.

Mehr …

15-February-2008

NEW YORK, Feb 15 (Reuters) – A weekly gauge of future U.S. economic growth edged down in the latest week, while its annualized growth rate reached recession-area readings not seen since November 2001, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index inched down to 133.4 in the week of Feb. 8 from 133.5 in the prior week.

The WLI fell due to higher interest rates, lower stock prices and weak housing, with the fall partly offset by lower jobless claims, said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI.

The index’s annualized growth rate skidded to minus 9.1 percent from minus 7.9 percent, reaching its lowest reading since the week of Nov. 9, 2001, when it was negative 9.2 percent.

“WLI growth is at recessionary readings, consistent with ongoing contractions in the financial and construction sectors,” said Achuthan. “However, ECRI’s leading indexes for the manufacturing and non-financial services sectors have yet to confirm recessionary conditions.”

Risk Aversion Reaches New Highs

30 PERCENT OF RESPONDENTS HEDGED AGAINST FURTHER EQUITY SELL-OFF

NEW YORK and LONDON, February 13, 2008 — Institutional investors are more risk averse now than they have been in seven years, according to Merrill Lynch’s Survey of Fund Managers for February. About 30 percent of the panel say they have hedged against further falls in equities over the next three months.

Fears over the economy and corporate profitability have stimulated a rise in portfolio cash levels to an average of 4.7 percent, up from 3.9 percent in January. A net 41 percent of fund managers are overweight cash, the highest since September 2001’s terrorist attacks on the United States. Investors have a shorter-term focus than at any time since March 2003. Risk appetite has plunged to new lows with a net 40 percent taking a lower level of risk than normal. The FMS Composite Indicator for liquidity and risk has fallen to 31, its lowest level since the survey first tracked risk appetite in April 2001.

“Risk aversion is so extreme and cash levels are so high, that the challenge is now to identify the catalyst that prompts money to return to the stock market,” said David Bowers, independent consultant to Merrill Lynch. “While it’s not clear what that catalyst will be, there’s no doubt that the ability to draw a line under the credit crunch will be an important step.”

Equities Bias Remains Embedded
Deep down, investors remain predisposed toward equities. Holding them back is concern over the credit crunch’s impact on corporate and economic health. A net 25 percent of respondents believe that equities are undervalued — three months ago that figure was a net 5 percent. A net 48 percent of respondents view bonds as overvalued.

The number of respondents who forecast a deterioration incorporate profits over the coming 12 months has risen to a net 68 percent, up from 57 percent in January. The percentage of managers who believe the global economy is in recession has doubled for the second month running to 16 percent, while the number who think a global recession is “likely” in the next 12 months rose to 28 percent, up from 19 percent in January. Asset allocators are now unwinding their long-running strategy of being long equities, short bonds. This month, a net 8 percent said they were underweight equities, the first underweight reading since March 2003. Overweight positions in emerging market equities are starting to be pruned back.

Love Affair With Eurozone Equities Is Over
Investors’ four-year love affair with continental European stocks has ended. Only 7 percent of asset allocators are overweight eurozone equities compared with 23 percent in January. Sentiment within the eurozone itself is weakening with a net 87 percent of respondents to the Regional FMS expecting growth in earnings per share to fall, while a net 25 percent believes inflation will fall.

“Eurozone investors are asking for rate cuts, worried not by inflation, but by a potential collapse in growth,” said Karen Olney, chief European equities strategist at Merrill Lynch. “Investors are sending a clear signal that they expect a raft of downgrades to consensus earnings forecasts — 96 percent of respondents say these forecasts are too high.”

Second Half Upturn in Store for Eurozone Economy
Eurozone investors believe the European Central Bank’s focus on inflation is overdone. A net 49 percent say that the bank’s monetary policy is too restrictive. Merrill Lynch, however, believes that while market turmoil might dampen consumer confidence in the short term, the eurozone’s economic fundamentals are strong with forecasts for GDP growth of 1.9 percent in 2008 and 2.1 percent in 2009. Furthermore, inflation should remain a concern for the ECB. Merrill Lynch forecasts inflation to rise to 2.7 percent in 2008, above the ECB’s target (less than, but close to 2 percent) before falling to 2.0 percent in 2009.

“The market is pricing in 75 basis points of interest rate cuts, but given the inflationary outlook we simply do not believe that the ECB has room to manoeuvre and deliver these cuts,” said Guillaume Menuet, European economist at Merrill Lynch.

A total of 190 fund managers participated in the global survey from February 1 to February 7, managing a total of U.S. $587 billion. A total of 171 managers participated in the regional surveys, managing U.S. $393 billion. The survey was conducted with the help of market research company Taylor Nelson Sofres (TNS). Through its international network in more than 50 countries, Taylor Nelson Sofres provides market information services in over 80 countries to national and multinational organizations. It is ranked as the fourth-largest market information group in the world. Survey results were analysed by David Bowers, who is joint managing director of Absolute Strategy Research Ltd., a financial services consultancy.

Auch die Credit Suisse meldet nach einer Umfrage im Januar unter Großkunden: ”Wir haben noch nie eine so große Unsicherheit bei unseren Kunden erlebt wie jetzt und so wenig Überzeugung mit Blick auf künftige Entwicklungen angetroffen. Nach unserer Erfahrung bedeutet dies in der Regel, dass die Märkte auf ein Niveau extremer Unterbewertung fallen.”

Helmut Wüllenweber

Im Folgenden werden Einschätzungen zur US-Konjunktur wiedergegeben; auf Rezessionskurs setzt Goldman Sachs; während Ed Yardeni noch eine Wachstumsrate des Bruttoinlandsproduktes von fast 2,5% prognostiziert.

Der graphische Überblick:

Dazu kurze Zusammenfassungen:

Goldman Sachs

• There will be a recession in 2008
- 2 to 3 quarters in duration
- Shallow -0.375 GDP for the year
- Profits growth will slow to 7.5% y/y
• Optimistic about longer-term
- Productivity will rebound
- Growth back to 3% without being inflationary
• December retail sales reflect only modest slowdown so far

Kiplinger

• CPI up 4.1% through December y/y
• Month of December up only 0.3% with lower energy prices
• 2008 inflation 3% as energy prices will moderate
• Still difficult for Fed to keep rates low too long
• Tax stimulus plan by early February
- $800 rebate for low and middle income taxpayers
- Business: Faster depreciation write-off and investment incentives to create jobs
- Total cost $150 billion
• Fed will supply stimulus sooner with 50 bp on January 30
• Inflation a concern Fed will address later this year

Merrill Lynch

• Four months after first Fed rate cut the stock market has declined – the Fed is easing in a recessionary backdrop
• GDP for 2008 1.125%
• GDP for 2009 2.000%
• Fed funds rate Dec 2008 2.00%
• 10 year treasury Dec 2008 3.70%

PIMCO

• GDP 1% in 2008
• Fed funds rate 3%
• 30 year mortgage 5.0% – 5.5%
- Refinancing boom
- Affordable housing will stabilize housing market
• Dollar will continue to weaken against emerging economies but may have bottomed against Euro and Pound

WSJ

• Weak dollar and high cost of oil
- Oil priced in Euro equivalent is $57
• Weak dollar reduces trade deficit with export boom, but makes imported oil much more expensive
• Lower interest rates will further weaken dollar limiting the intended stimulus
• Foreign capital funding banks, investment banks
- Concern that sovereign foreign funds will work together to exercise control
- Existing shareholders do not like dilution
- However, better than selling asset which spreads credit crunch from Wall Street to Main Street
• Investors owning 5% or more of a bank may be subject to Bank Holding Company Act
• Deals of 10% or more (investment banks) subject to Treasury Department scrutiny
• Political risk too – Committee on Foreign Investment in US
• Typically 10% or less passive investment will fly under the radar
• Foreign capital
- Bolsters our financial institutions
- Facilitates global free markets

Yardeni

• December retail sales not that bad – November, December together show modest y/y growth in sales
• Citigroup – mortgage crisis leaking into consumer lending and credit card operations
• Can US economy count on the consumer?
- We think so, but they will need to retrench for a few months
- Productivity gains will continue to bolster consumer
• Some portfolio managers don’t like my recommendation to underweight financial and consumer discretionary sectors
- Now offer good values
- May be better than sectors that have not corrected
• Are we talking ourselves into a recession?
  The good news:
- Treasury yields down 50 bp in anticipation of Fed cut
- Mortgage refinancing is taking off and will bolster consumer
- Lower rates may provide support for housing market
- Tax relief coming for consumer and business
- Weak dollar boosting US exports
- Oil prices are backing off some
- Foreign investors remain big buyers of US stocks
- In other words – this too shall pass
- Absent financial and consumer discretionary sectors, the other eight S&P 500 sectors show good earnings momentum at this time
- Market looks cheap to me
- Isn’t likely to improve much until all the worries about a US and global recession are over
• Wall Street financial engineers deserve large portion of the blame for credit crisis:
- Paying themselves up front fees for structured derivatives sure way to produce lots of defective product
- Fixed income investors deserve some blame for buying the product
- Equity investors deserve some blame for exaggerating and overreacting (or the media)
• Stock markets remain very coupled
- Fears of global recession could become selffulfilling prophecy as result of negative wealth effect
• Global decline scenario is so grim
- Bound to be coordinated easing response by central banks
- I think stocks have capitulated
- So now would be the time to buy
• Why the Fed Big Easing should work
- Lower interest rates have always revived economy – Fed intent on avoiding a recession
- Drop in short-term rates cause flow of funds to banks (CDs) – reintermediation: provides funds to make qualified loans
- Conventional mortgage rates are tumbling – boost refinancing, particularly remaining ARMs
- Lower rates mean investors will take on equity risk–stocks cheapest asset class now
- $4.6 trillion in international reserves held in central bank money market funds – pressure to move into sovereign wealth funds and equity markets
- Drop in treasury rates will offset higher yield spreadcost being incurred in capital markets
• Good news
- Industrial analysts expect 2008 and 2009 earnings growth to be 17.4% and 13.0% respectively
- Will happen only if (1) US avoids recession, (2) global growth remains robust, (3) Financials earning comparisons turn positive, (4) dollar remains weak,(5) companies continue to reduce shares outstanding

Quelle

Shiller analysiert den zuletzt publizierten S&P/Case-Shiller Index für den November. Der grösste Rückgang in der Historie des Index.
Er vergleicht das aktuelle Platzen der Immobilienblase mit dem Immobilienmarkt der ‘Great Depression’ in den 30iger Jahren des letzten Jahrhunderts, sieht die Gefahr einer erneuten Depression und fordert weitere Steuerleichterungen.

Link, falls das You Tube Fenster nicht zu sehen ist

Die jährliche Wachstumsrate der S&P/Case-Shiller Indizes für 1o bzw. 20 Metropolen:

William Gross schreibt heute in der Londoner Financial Times unter dem angegebenen Titel:

As stock markets rise on optimistic workout developments [of the monoliners], it is clear that it is – in the short run. But … the sense of stability imparted to an oligopolistic industry with visible flaws is not likely to last, nor may the hope for a return to economic growth of recent years. … Neither ultra-low interest rates or tax rebates, nor investor-led and authority-based monoline bailouts are likely to change that significantly during the next few years.

David Rosenberg schreibt in “The Market Econmist”, Merrill Lynchs weekly guidebook for the global investor: It will likely take years before we can actually put the Humpty-Dumpty economic back together again.

Helmut Wüllenweber

Der Subindex für die allgemeine Geschäftstätigkeit hat im Januar von vormals 54,4 Punkten 12,5 Punkte auf 41,9 P. abgegeben. Dies ist der grösste Abschlag in der Historie des Index seit Juli 1997. Ein niedriger Indexstand wurde nur im Oktober 2001 (40,5) gesehen. Weitere Indizes notierten folgend:

Mit dem Januar 2008 wurde erstmals ein Gesamtindex (NMI) publiziert; dieser wurde mit 44,6 angegeben; eine historische Reihe existiert nicht.

Der Gesamtindex besteht zu je 25% aus den Subindizes:

• allgemeine Geschäftstätigkeit,
• Auftragseingänge,
• Beschäftigung
• Zulieferer

Vergleichswerte liefert nur der Index der ‘allgemeinen Geschäftstätigkeit’, daher dieser im Chart:

Gibt es Hoffnung für die Bullen? Bloomberg meldet:

Chief executive officers, directors and other senior officials in corporate America are buying more of their companies’ shares than they’re selling for the first time since 1995, prompting growing confidence the stock market is poised to rally for the rest of the year.

The last seven times insiders bought more than they sold, between 1988 and 1995, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rallied an average 21 percent in the following 12 months, according to data compiled by the Washington Service. The purchases show executives believe the worst may be over after stocks suffered the biggest January drop in 18 years on signs the economy is in a recession.

Total purchases were 1.44 times more than sales, the first time in 13 years that insiders became net buyers, the data show. The S&P 500, the benchmark for American equities, hasn’t fallen in the 12 months after insiders bought more than they sold, according to Washington Service data that go back 20 years.

Bearish Bets

While executives step up buying, short sellers are betting against U.S. companies like never before. The amount of short selling — when traders sell borrowed shares expecting to buy them back after prices fall — grew to 3.7 percent of the total shares on the NYSE last month, the highest since at least 1931.

Helmut Wüllenweber

Der sentix-Konjunkturindex für den Februar ist erschienen

• Auch der Februar steht im Zeichen einer weiteren Eintrübung der konjunkturellen Perspektiven. Der sentix-Konjunkturindex (Gesamtindex) verzeichnet den achten (!) Rückgang in Folge auf 4,3 Punkte. Dies ist der niedrigste Wert seit Juli 2005.
• Moderater Rückgang in den Erwartungen, aber starker Rückgang in der Lagebeurteilung auf 28,75 nach 36,00 (niedrigster Wert seit Januar 2006)! Die Erwartungskomponente notiert auf einem Allzeittief (seit sentix-Start 2003).
• Weiterer massiver Einbruch der Lagebeurteilung für die USA auf -34,00 und damit erstmals seit Oktober 2003 schlechtere Lageeinschätzung im Vergleich zu den Erwartungen. Die FED-Zinssenkungen schaffen keine Wende!
• Alle Weltregionen mit rückläufigen Gesamtindizes.

weitere Analyse – pdf

Der DAX30 verzeichnete im Januar einen Abschlag von 15,1%; seit 1960 (Historie der verwerteten Daten) ist dies der erste zweistellige Verlust. Bisher lang der Januar 1987 mit -9,6% vorne.

Dazu heute zwei Graphiken, zunächst die Performance der einzelnen Monate; das jeweils aktuelle Jahr ist mit blauen Dreiecken besonders gekennzeichnet.
Monatlich wird diese Graphik aktualisiert, einige kennen sie vielleicht schon, sie steht unten auf der Seite

Die spannende Frage ist aber nun wie das Jahr weiter geht. Legt man den Januar als Wegweiser des Gesamtjahres zugrunde, so bietet dieser leider keinen Hinweis. Der folgende Korrelationschart sieht stattliche Jahresgewinne nach einem negativen Jahresbeginn und umgekehrt. Der bislang grösste Rückgang von -9,6% wurde dann allerdings von -30,3% im Gesamtjahr 1987 gefolgt, während der grösste Jahresverlust 2002 (-43,9) von einem Januar mit -1,0% eingeläutet wurde.

Hmm, hier gilt mal wieder: nix Genaues weiss man